Our problems in the last couple of years where there were large campaigns urging all NZers to save 10% of their power to aviod blackouts were largly to do with the lack of water in the hydro lakes.
I understand that this will also be an issue in future years. I also believe (from reading in the paper) we will also have an issue with the gas power unless they can find some more gas reserves to use. I had not heard anything about us not using our coal reserves. We also have huge coal reserves down south that are not touched.
I think there are so many more natual options
NZ could investigate and implement before needing to go to Nuclear power. There are several issues with Nuclear power, one is our clean green image, the others are how do we dispose of our waste, and also what will that do to our anti nuclear stance to other companies, currently we wont let them truck their waste through our waters.
I think that blackouts in the future will be caused by the natural project being stopped/hindered by the people of
NZ making it difficult for these projects to go ahead. Project Aqua for instance, and several wind farm options.
Genesis are trying to build a wind farm up on the Awhitu Penusula, and have difficulties with the locals not wanting it and making an awfully large fuss about the noise etc. I recently visited a wind farm in the south west australia, we were right beside it and the noise was nothing.
These are the same people who will be complaining when we have to have blackouts that nothing has been done to increase the generation!
I reckon we could do quite will with all our natural resources. The research and technology to avoid some of the side effects that previously stopped these options being implemented now can be overcome I am sure.